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Will a US-China Trade War Crash Singapore’s Property Market?

Apr 14

3 min read




Firstly let's examine how a US-China Trade War Could Hurt Singapore’s Economy


1. Decline in Trade & GDP Growth

  • Singapore’s total trade is over 3x its GDP, making it highly sensitive to global demand.

  • A trade war between the US and China could reduce exports, leading to slower GDP growth or even a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction).

  • Past US-China tariffs (2018-2019) saw Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) shrink by 8.7% in 2019.

2. Disruptions in Key Export Sectors

Singapore’s top exports—electronics, chemicals, and machinery—are deeply tied to US and Chinese demand. A trade war could:

  • Reduce semiconductor sales (China is a major buyer).

  • Lower demand for Singapore’s refined petroleum (used in global manufacturing).

  • Hurt pharmaceutical exports due to weaker global trade flows.

3. Supply Chain Shifts & Investment Uncertainty

  • Many multinational corporations (MNCs) use Singapore as a regional hub. Trade wars may force companies to relocate supply chains, reducing Singapore’s role as a global trade and logistics hub.

  • Foreign direct investment (FDI) could decline if businesses delay expansions due to trade tensions.

4. Risk of a Technical Recession

  • If global demand weakens significantly, Singapore’s export-reliant economy could face a technical recession.

  • The manufacturing sector (20% of GDP) would be the first to suffer, potentially leading to job cuts and reduced consumer spending.


A full-blown US-China trade war would hurt Singapore’s exports, GDP, and investment flows, raising the risk of a technical recession. However, Singapore’s diversified economy and strong government policies may help soften the blow.

Key Takeaways:

✔ Singapore’s top exports (electronics, chemicals) are highly exposed to trade wars.

✔ A US-China conflict could trigger an economic slowdown or recession.

✔ Businesses should prepare for supply chain shifts and weaker demand.


1. Residential Property Prices: Moderate Slowdown Likely

✅ Luxury Homes & Condos (Most Exposed)

  • Many high-end buyers are foreign investors (Chinese, Americans, Indonesians).

  • If a trade war weakens their home economies, demand for luxury properties could dip.

  • Past slowdowns (e.g., 2019 US-China tensions) saw luxury home prices stagnate.

✅ HDB & Mass-Market Condos (More Resilient)

  • Local demand remains strong due to housing needs.

  • Government cooling measures (e.g., ABSD) already limit speculation.

  • Possible interest rate cuts (if recession fears rise) could support buyers.

📉 Worst-Case Scenario:

  • If trade war leads to massive job cuts (especially in tech/finance), some may delay home purchases.

  • Local buyer demand could drop 10-15% due to job security.

2. Commercial Real Estate: Office & Retail at Risk

🏢 Office Space Demand Could Fall

  • Many MNCs (especially US/China firms) use Singapore as a regional HQ.

  • If trade war disrupts business expansion, office rents may soften (similar to 2020 pandemic drop).

  • Vacancy rates could rise in Marina Bay Financial District & Raffles Place.

🛍️ Retail & Hospitality Impact

  • Weaker consumer spending (from economic slowdown) could hurt mall foot traffic.

  • Luxury retail (Orchard Road) may suffer if Chinese tourist spending declines.

  • Hotels could see lower corporate travel demand.

3. Industrial & Logistics Property: Mixed Effects

📦 Warehousing Demand May Stay Strong

  • Companies may stockpile goods to avoid trade war disruptions, boosting short-term demand.

  • But long-term, if manufacturing declines, industrial rents could fall.

🏭 Factories & Business Parks Face Risks

  • Electronics and chemical firms (key industrial tenants) may cut expansion plans.

  • Jurong Island and Tuas industrial rents could soften.

4. Foreign Investment in Singapore Property

  • High-net-worth investors (HNWIs) from China may slow purchases due to capital controls.

  • US/EU investors could see Singapore as a safe haven, supporting prime property.

  • If the Foreigner ABSD were to be reduced or abolished (due to recession), foreign buyer may re enter the prime CCR market.



The information provided in this blog is for general informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, or real estate advice. While we strive to ensure accuracy, the economic and property market conditions discussed are subject to change based on global and domestic factors.

  • Not Professional Advice: Readers should consult qualified financial advisors, real estate experts, or legal professionals before making any decisions.

  • No Guarantees: Past performance does not indicate future results. Market trends, government policies, and trade dynamics can shift unexpectedly.

  • Personal Responsibility: Any actions taken based on the content of this blog are at the reader’s own risk. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for losses or damages arising from reliance on this information.


By reading this blog, you acknowledge and agree to this disclaimer

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